India’s PM Modi walks diplomatic tightrope as he visits Ukraine after Russia: Experts

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to push for an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia when he meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday (Aug 23).
But observers said it is unclear whether Modi could be an effective peacemaker, as he is seen by many as too close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Modi, the first Indian leader to set foot in Ukraine in more than 30 years, said ahead of his visit that he will be discussing “perspectives on the peaceful resolution” of the ongoing conflict, as well as “deepening the India-Ukraine friendship”. 
On the chances of India facilitating any meaningful dialogue between Ukraine and Russia, C Raja Mohan, visiting research professor at the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Institute of South Asian Studies, said: “I would say, don’t hold your breath that India is going to pull a big rabbit out of the hat. Delhi is aware of its role and its limitations.”
India does not have “the leverage or capacity” to persuade Zelenskyy and Putin to sit down for talks, he told CNA’s Asia Now on Friday. 
“The only country that can do it is the United States, and both Zelenskyy and Putin are waiting for the November presidential election,” he added. 
“I think we should be, as realists, clear that India’s role will be at the margins rather than at the centre.”
Currently, a diplomatic breakthrough looks elusive, especially after Ukraine’s recent military offensive into Russia’s Kursk region. 
“I think Modi will stress the importance of peace – that peace and stability is imperative for parties involved,” said Karthik Nachiappan, research fellow at the NUS’ Institute of South Asian Studies. 
The visit is also symbolic, he told CNA’s Asia First on Friday. 
“It’s an important signal that India is sending to the West, to the United States, that India cares about Ukraine, the war, Ukraine’s future, and what happens in Europe.”
Modi’s historic trip comes just over a month after his visit to Russia, where he held talks with Putin amid global outcry over Russian air strikes in Ukraine.
Modi drew condemnation for embracing the Russian leader during his trip, which Zelenskyy had slammed as a “huge disappointment” and “a devastating blow to peace efforts”. 
Some experts believe Modi, who was in Poland on Thursday before departing for Ukraine, is now trying to (level out a perceived tilt towards Moscow. 
“It’s not a surprise that this visit happened soon after Modi’s visit to Moscow,” said Karthik. 
“The optics of that visit was not great for Delhi and Modi, particularly in Washington and in other western capitals.”
His government has avoided explicit condemnations of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, instead urging both sides to resolve their differences through dialogue. 
Mohan from NUS said: “I think how India specifically responds to Russian expansionism in central Europe, and Russia’s neighbours who fear Russia’s domination of them – this is a subject that has long been dormant.
“The fact is, India has had a long-standing relationship with Russia and it is trying to prevent the damage to that relationship. 
“But now, I think, by reaching out to Ukraine and to central European countries like Poland, India is going to bring greater balance into the way it approaches Russia’s conflict with Ukraine,” he added.
India also still purchases deeply discounted Russian oil, in the face of threats of western sanctions.
“I think India’s too big a country to be pressured. It’s a major oil importer,” said Mohan on whether pressure from the West would reduce India’s economic dependency on Russia. 
“I don’t think India is going to forego the opportunity of buying oil at cheap prices, just because the West doesn’t like it.”
Some countries might even see the importance of India’s Russian oil purchases in keeping the market stable, he added. 
“Because if India does not buy it and everyone goes to the Middle East, the prices of oil will actually go up.”
Analysts said Modi’s recent visits suggest a continuation of his push for India to be a global power. 
“It’s important for India to work with countries and partners that advance its core interests – sovereignty, economic growth, and also its military capabilities,” said Karthik. 
“So working with Russia and working with the West, the US especially, helps advance all those interests. 
“I think it’s a form of pragmatism where India is working with different partners to address its key strategic challenges.”